The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ November Employment Situation report, published on December 16, 2025, shows that the labor market continued to lose momentum late in 2025. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest level since 2021. Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 64,000 jobs in November, following a 105,000-job decline in October. Over the past three months, job growth has averaged roughly 22,000 jobs per month, and under 17,000 per month over six months, compared with the 30,000–50,000 jobs typically needed to keep unemployment stable. Wage growth also continued to cool, slowing to 3.5% year over year. While private-sector hiring showed modest resilience, federal job losses offset those gains, contributing to weaker net employment growth.

The most recent Federal Reserve Beige Book Report found that about half of the Districts reported weaker labor demand and growing signs of hiring restraint. Employers across regions increasingly relied on hiring freezes, replacement-only hiring, attrition, or adjustments to hours instead of adding new staff. Several Districts highlighted early AI-related impacts, noting that automation or AI tools had replaced certain entry-level tasks or improved productivity enough to limit the need for new hiring. 

Additionally, Staffing Industry Analysts reported that companies increasingly paused backfills or delayed new requisitions while assessing the effects of higher borrowing costs, global uncertainty, and productivity-driven workforce models. The survey found that 83% of employers had already taken proactive steps to prepare for a potential economic downturn. Nearly half (45%) had cut unnecessary expenses, 29% had streamlined hiring processes, and 26% had cross-trained employees to improve flexibility. Some organizations reported pausing hiring altogether or starting to reduce headcount. About 23% said they were not filling vacant roles, and nearly 20% confirmed they were already conducting layoffs.

In summary, all data reflect a labor market under sustained pressure, with employers delaying hiring decisions amid elevated costs and uncertainty and turning to efficiency measures and selective technology adoption rather than workforce expansion.